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Mid-Year Outlook 2020
This is a rare and remarkable time. The worst pandemic in more than a century led to an engineered collapse of the record-long economic expansion since 2009. Now, though, brand new economic and market cycles are getting underway. We expect a more rapid rebound than many others do. But just as the COVID collapse is no ordinary recession, we stress that this will be no ordinary recovery. And we believe that the new cycle calls for a new approach to investing.
In Mid-Year Outlook 2020, we explore the risks and opportunities we see ahead, and positive actions to prepare portfolios for them. While beaten-down bargains are less widespread than in previous new cycles, we identify many markets with greater rebound potential. We also update our long-term asset class return estimates and outline important allocation shifts needed in order to seek diversification in today’s world of very low interest rates.
The COVID collapse and policy response have profoundly affected our strategic return estimates, asset allocation strategy, portfolio construction, and tactical market recommendations.
Today's late-cycle conditions are a good time to seek to safeguard your assets, and also offer opportunities for doing so.