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Language Notification

Please be advised that future verbal and written communications from the bank may be in English only. These communications may include, but are not limited to, account agreements, statements and disclosures, changes in terms or fees; or any servicing of your account.

Por favor, tenga en cuenta que es posible que las comunicaciones futuras del banco, ya sean verbales o escritas, sean únicamente en inglés. Estas comunicaciones podrían incluir, entre otras, contratos de cuentas, estados de cuenta y divulgaciones, así como cambios en términos o cargos o cualquier tipo de servicio para su cuenta.

Informamos que as futuras comunicações do banco, verbais e escritas, podem estar disponíveis apenas em inglês. Essas comunicações podem incluir, entre outras, acordos de conta, extratos de conta e divulgações, alterações aos termos ou tarifas, ou qualquer tipo de serviço pertinente à sua conta.

仅此通知,本行即日起发出的口头及书面通信可能将只提供英文版本。这些通信可能包括但不限于账户协议,账单和通知,条款或费用变更;或任何为您账户提供的服务。

Please be advised that future verbal and written communications from the bank may be in English only. These communications may include, but are not limited to, account agreements, statements and disclosures, changes in terms or fees; or any servicing of your account.

Por favor, tenga en cuenta que es posible que las comunicaciones futuras del banco, ya sean verbales o escritas, sean únicamente en inglés. Estas comunicaciones podrían incluir, entre otras, contratos de cuentas, estados de cuenta y divulgaciones, así como cambios en términos o cargos o cualquier tipo de servicio para su cuenta.

Informamos que as futuras comunicações do banco, verbais e escritas, podem estar disponíveis apenas em inglês. Essas comunicações podem incluir, entre outras, acordos de conta, extratos de conta e divulgações, alterações aos termos ou tarifas, ou qualquer tipo de serviço pertinente à sua conta.

仅此通知,本行即日起发出的口头及书面通信可能将只提供英文版本。这些通信可能包括但不限于账户协议,账单和通知,条款或费用变更;或任何为您账户提供的服务。

covid-lab

Perspectives

D-Day

David Bailin

By David Bailin

Chief Investment Officer

November 22, 2020Posted InFixed Income, Investment Strategy and Equities

  • Like armies landing on five Normandy beaches on D-Day (Utah, Omaha, Gold, Juno and Sword), the arrival of the five initial vaccines (Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson and Novavax) will mark the beginning of the end of Covid-19. There are now five billion incoming “landing craft” that are likely to return the world to a new normal and the full start of a New Economic Cycle in 2021

 

  • Given that the vaccine manufacturers presumed success and planned for the delivery of billions of doses, it is likely that we will see the end of the global Covid-19 pandemic around mid-year 2021, with a sharp broadening out of the world economic recovery in the second half of 2021.  Our view is that the sources of fuel for the industrial, services and trade recovery we are about to experience are larger than investors expect.

 

  • Markets anticipate events and so must we.  When you’re in the business of managing assets, the decision to “go overweight” risk assets is one the CIO looks back on to study their success or failure.  This past week, the Citi Private Bank Global Investment Committee (GIC) raised its allocation to global equities by a further 3%. With the changes, CPB is 9.5% overweight global equities, including a 2% overweight to REIT assets. We also remain 1.5% overweight to gold as a risk hedge, while our global fixed income weightings were reduced from -7% to -10%.

 

  • Though we have pivoted portfolios to cyclical shares and underperforming non-US markets, we are not expecting a fundamental retrenchment in the “digital economy.”  The equity markets we are overweight are collectively 14% below record highs, with only the US small and mid-caps sectors having rebounded to new highs so. Even a partial recovery in assets we are overweight, such as REITS, could generate double-digit returns from current levels. Our preferred markets across Europe and in Southern Asia will be major beneficiaries of a return to trade normalcy under a Biden administration.  And these equity markets are big laggards relative to China.
Read the CIO Bulletin