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Investment Strategy
December 20, 2020
1 min

US stimulus, UK fear and Asia’s post-COVID ascent

December 20, 2020
1 min
David Bailin
Steven Wieting
Bridge crossing port harbour in Asia

With further US fiscal relief pending, we consider COVID's mutation in the UK and Asia's economic recovery. Asia is a more important opportunity than investors currently appreciate.

Congressional approval of a new COVID-relief bill appears more likely. The package is likely to include direct stimulus checks between $600 and $700 to most households and supplement weekly state unemployment insurance payments to workers who lost jobs this year by $300. The $900 billion fiscal support package provides a good start for the New Year, while vaccines will deliver the most effective stimulus.

The appearance of new COVID virus variants is expected. Over time, as in the UK, mutations accumulate and lead to new variants as the virus adapts to the human immune system. The latest clinical advice is that it is highly unlikely that the UK mutation would fail to respond to a vaccine.  That said, risks of further mutations remain.

China is a beacon for both post-COVID impact and recovery. China’s surprisingly strong and immediate export recovery was not something we expected in setting our regional and global growth estimates for 2021. As an investment opportunity, China and Asia are far more important than investors currently appreciate.

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