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With US bond markets rallying reflecting investor worries of an imminent slowdown or recession and equities holding near market highs, Jonathan Ferro asked whether the equity or bond market was “right”. That’s not so simple. The US will print poor economic data in Q1 and Q2 will see a pick up in the same.
The slowdown in the US economy is real, but late stage equity gains are common. Thus, one must not try to time the market and yet improve portfolio quality. What one owns is important to achieve better returns with less risk.