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Please be advised that future verbal and written communications from the bank may be in English only. These communications may include, but are not limited to, account agreements, statements and disclosures, changes in terms or fees; or any servicing of your account.

Por favor, tenga en cuenta que es posible que las comunicaciones futuras del banco, ya sean verbales o escritas, sean únicamente en inglés. Estas comunicaciones podrían incluir, entre otras, contratos de cuentas, estados de cuenta y divulgaciones, así como cambios en términos o cargos o cualquier tipo de servicio para su cuenta.

Informamos que as futuras comunicações do banco, verbais e escritas, podem estar disponíveis apenas em inglês. Essas comunicações podem incluir, entre outras, acordos de conta, extratos de conta e divulgações, alterações aos termos ou tarifas, ou qualquer tipo de serviço pertinente à sua conta.

仅此通知,本行即日起发出的口头及书面通信可能将只提供英文版本。这些通信可能包括但不限于账户协议,账单和通知,条款或费用变更;或任何为您账户提供的服务。

Please be advised that future verbal and written communications from the bank may be in English only. These communications may include, but are not limited to, account agreements, statements and disclosures, changes in terms or fees; or any servicing of your account.

Por favor, tenga en cuenta que es posible que las comunicaciones futuras del banco, ya sean verbales o escritas, sean únicamente en inglés. Estas comunicaciones podrían incluir, entre otras, contratos de cuentas, estados de cuenta y divulgaciones, así como cambios en términos o cargos o cualquier tipo de servicio para su cuenta.

Informamos que as futuras comunicações do banco, verbais e escritas, podem estar disponíveis apenas em inglês. Essas comunicações podem incluir, entre outras, acordos de conta, extratos de conta e divulgações, alterações aos termos ou tarifas, ou qualquer tipo de serviço pertinente à sua conta.

仅此通知,本行即日起发出的口头及书面通信可能将只提供英文版本。这些通信可能包括但不限于账户协议,账单和通知,条款或费用变更;或任何为您账户提供的服务。

US-trade-risks-escalate-in-summer-of-deadlines

US trade risks escalate in summer of deadlines

Steven Wieting

By Steven Wieting

Chief Investment Strategist and Chief Economist

June 26, 2018Posted InInvestments and Investment Strategy

We previously noted that an announcement that the US would apply tariffs to auto imports would constitute an escalation in its confrontation of trading partners.

 

While the results of a ‘US national security’ assessment of autos trade has yet to be released, President Trump’s comment via Twitter this past weekend that the US would apply a 20% tariff on European cars if EU “tariffs and barriers are not soon broken down” suggests a widening confrontation ahead

 

Separate actions aimed at reducing US/Chinese cross-border investment and added tariffs continues to suggest the U.S. is broadening its demands rather than seeking a quick victory with modest changes. 

 

While the US was reportedly close to making agreements over NAFTA and a package of Chinese measures, how willing the world will be to accommodate greater changes to existing US trade agreements is an open question. 

 

We continue to see the US-led trade fracas as unpredictable, and not the sole issue investors

should focus attention on. Over the medium-term, it is far from certain that tariffs will be the largest market issue.  

 

Markets have to some degree braced for poor trade news. Nonetheless, there are several near-term deadlines for markets to focus on which may raise uncertainty further.  

 

On the trade front, the US will announce new Chinese trade restrictions at month end and potential US autos-sector measures in July. Retaliation should be expected.

 

On the political front, the German coalition government faces near-term risks over EU standards for the treatment of migrants and asylum seekers.  Mexico’s Presidential election is one week away.

 

With summer markets typically volatile, low volume trading periods, investors may want to consider hedging particular risks above, or in our view, hedging for broader risks in the equities asset class over the near term.  While none of the issues above assure negative outcomes, US equity implied volatility has fallen roughly 65% from 2018 highs.

 

The risks associated with the breakdown of international policy cooperation discussed in our Mid-Year Outlook deserves consideration.