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Language Notification

Please be advised that future verbal and written communications from the bank may be in English only. These communications may include, but are not limited to, account agreements, statements and disclosures, changes in terms or fees; or any servicing of your account.

Por favor, tenga en cuenta que es posible que las comunicaciones futuras del banco, ya sean verbales o escritas, sean únicamente en inglés. Estas comunicaciones podrían incluir, entre otras, contratos de cuentas, estados de cuenta y divulgaciones, así como cambios en términos o cargos o cualquier tipo de servicio para su cuenta.

Informamos que as futuras comunicações do banco, verbais e escritas, podem estar disponíveis apenas em inglês. Essas comunicações podem incluir, entre outras, acordos de conta, extratos de conta e divulgações, alterações aos termos ou tarifas, ou qualquer tipo de serviço pertinente à sua conta.

仅此通知,本行即日起发出的口头及书面通信可能将只提供英文版本。这些通信可能包括但不限于账户协议,账单和通知,条款或费用变更;或任何为您账户提供的服务。

Please be advised that future verbal and written communications from the bank may be in English only. These communications may include, but are not limited to, account agreements, statements and disclosures, changes in terms or fees; or any servicing of your account.

Por favor, tenga en cuenta que es posible que las comunicaciones futuras del banco, ya sean verbales o escritas, sean únicamente en inglés. Estas comunicaciones podrían incluir, entre otras, contratos de cuentas, estados de cuenta y divulgaciones, así como cambios en términos o cargos o cualquier tipo de servicio para su cuenta.

Informamos que as futuras comunicações do banco, verbais e escritas, podem estar disponíveis apenas em inglês. Essas comunicações podem incluir, entre outras, acordos de conta, extratos de conta e divulgações, alterações aos termos ou tarifas, ou qualquer tipo de serviço pertinente à sua conta.

仅此通知,本行即日起发出的口头及书面通信可能将只提供英文版本。这些通信可能包括但不限于账户协议,账单和通知,条款或费用变更;或任何为您账户提供的服务。

UK-New-Prime-Minister-But-Old-Problems-Still-Loom-Large

UK: New Prime Minister, But Old Problems Still Loom Large

Jeffrey Sacks

By Jeffrey Sacks

Head - EMEA Investment Strategy

July 25, 2019Posted InEquities, Fixed Income and Investment Strategy

  • New UK Prime Minister. Boris Johnson takes over from Theresa May today as UK PM.
  • Strong party mandate. With two-thirds of Conservative members backing him over rival Jeremy Hunt, Mr Johnson has a convincing mandate from his party for personnel changes and a new approach to Brexit. 
  • Weak parliamentary hand. The new PM inherits a parliamentary working majority of only two MPs.
  • Little room for manoeuvre. The UK parliament is opposed to leaving the European Union EU on 31 October without a deal. 
  • Successful Brexit deal renegotiation challenging. We see a high probability that the new PM won't reach agreement with the EU to reset the terms of an orderly Brexit. 
  • Autumn general election risk. If the EU cannot be successfully renegotiated and the UK parliament blocks leaving without a deal, a UK general election becomes likely. 
  • Electoral uncertainty. Given the polarization and fragmentation over Brexit, the result of any election could hinge on whether PM Johnson can secure support from the hardline anti-EU Brexit Party. 
  • Economy weakening. Cyclical pressures could be exacerbated by a 'no-deal exit' and by weakening confidence due to ongoing domestic political uncertainty. 
  • Stay cautious for now. The risks of a 'no deal' Brexit and of a Labour-led coalition winning a UK general election are likely to restrain UK assets this summer. We also highlight three developments that could lead to early upside surprise. 
    • Selective short-term opportunities only. While UK currency and equities are expensive, reflecting political uncertainty, we see only selective equity opportunities for the moment. 
    • Wait until the outlook becomes clearer. We think the UK leaving the EU with a deal would be very positive for UK assets. Such an outcome would likely also keep the business-friendly Conservative Party in government. A 'no deal' exit followed by a Conservative-led coalition would be initially negative due to the economic impact, then recovery. The worst-case for UK assets would be a 'no-deal exit' followed by a Labour-led coalition. 

Click here to read European Strategy Bulletin.