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Perspectives

UK enters critical Brexit phase as economy slows

Jeffrey Sacks

By Jeffrey Sacks

Head - EMEA Investment Strategy

October 15, 2019Posted InEquities, Fixed Income and Investment Strategy

  • With days before the EU deadline, there are still multiple scenarios:
  • Economic growth slowdown accelerating.
  • Our base case:
    • A revised Withdrawal Agreement will probably be agreed with the EU.
    • An EU extension might be needed and would be agreed.
    • A general election will probably be held during this extension period.
    • There is a possibility of UK parliamentary approval being dependent on a confirmatory referendum.
    • Conservative election win would lead to the Withdrawal Agreement being passed by parliament.
  • Our advice:
    • Sterling: accumulate slowly into any weakness.
    • Equities: accumulate slowly into weakness.
    • Gilts: short term will move with global bond rally, long term held back by fiscal expansion.

 Click here to read Europe Strategy