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Please be advised that future verbal and written communications from the bank may be in English only. These communications may include, but are not limited to, account agreements, statements and disclosures, changes in terms or fees; or any servicing of your account.

Por favor, tenga en cuenta que es posible que las comunicaciones futuras del banco, ya sean verbales o escritas, sean únicamente en inglés. Estas comunicaciones podrían incluir, entre otras, contratos de cuentas, estados de cuenta y divulgaciones, así como cambios en términos o cargos o cualquier tipo de servicio para su cuenta.

Informamos que as futuras comunicações do banco, verbais e escritas, podem estar disponíveis apenas em inglês. Essas comunicações podem incluir, entre outras, acordos de conta, extratos de conta e divulgações, alterações aos termos ou tarifas, ou qualquer tipo de serviço pertinente à sua conta.

仅此通知,本行即日起发出的口头及书面通信可能将只提供英文版本。这些通信可能包括但不限于账户协议,账单和通知,条款或费用变更;或任何为您账户提供的服务。

Please be advised that future verbal and written communications from the bank may be in English only. These communications may include, but are not limited to, account agreements, statements and disclosures, changes in terms or fees; or any servicing of your account.

Por favor, tenga en cuenta que es posible que las comunicaciones futuras del banco, ya sean verbales o escritas, sean únicamente en inglés. Estas comunicaciones podrían incluir, entre otras, contratos de cuentas, estados de cuenta y divulgaciones, así como cambios en términos o cargos o cualquier tipo de servicio para su cuenta.

Informamos que as futuras comunicações do banco, verbais e escritas, podem estar disponíveis apenas em inglês. Essas comunicações podem incluir, entre outras, acordos de conta, extratos de conta e divulgações, alterações aos termos ou tarifas, ou qualquer tipo de serviço pertinente à sua conta.

仅此通知,本行即日起发出的口头及书面通信可能将只提供英文版本。这些通信可能包括但不限于账户协议,账单和通知,条款或费用变更;或任何为您账户提供的服务。

Trump-COVID-positive-suggests-winter-caution-more-stimulus

Perspectives

Trump COVID positive suggests winter caution, more stimulus

Steven Wieting

By Steven Wieting

Chief Investment Strategist and Chief Economist

October 2, 2020Posted InFixed Income, Investment Strategy and Equities

News that US President Trump and the First Lady tested positive for COVID-19 rocked world financial markets overnight. The issue raises many questions, but we would caution about jumping to strong and lasting conclusions. There are possible impacts on the election and US policy. But just as the virus has highly variable and unpredictable health effects on individuals, one might see the same for this news event.  

As Figure 1 below shows, prediction markets priced in an increased probability of a Biden victory after Trump’s health announcement. US equity futures have dropped 1.3% on the news, with US Treasuries and the US dollar rising slightly on risk aversion.  

Trump derided heavy precautions for Covid infections as recently as during his debate against Vice President Biden on Tuesday. He has held in-person campaign rallies for supporters without masks or social distancing.  News of the President’s infection will now highlight the increased health risks for the country and strengthen the hands of those arguing for a more cautious approach to economic re-opening.

At the margin, the news may move Republicans toward greater stimulus efforts. It is unlikely to mean a delayed US election, which would require consent of the Democrat controlled House.  (We would similarly expect no delay in Senate confirmation of Supreme Court Nominee Coney Barrett, though any movement on political timing should be closely watched.)

While cancelling in-person campaign events, President Trump and his doctor said he would maintain all of his duties and control of government during his isolation over the next 14 days.The severity of symptoms for those contracting the virus ranges widely.  While the mortality rate for men of the President’s age has been far higher than for the average of the population – near 7% - the President might also have only a mild case.  One simply cannot predict if or how Covid will impact President Trump’s activities. 

Comment: we believe news of the President’s Covid infection will inject greater caution into the US public approach to Covid.  

This will encourage delays in reopening efforts which already face winter challenges to social distancing. It raises the chances of a stronger fiscal response, though still likely after the election. It will strengthen arguments for Biden’s more cautious approach to Covid.  Still, news developments move very fast and unpredictably. We should not discount that this story will be seen differently or largely ignored weeks from now.

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