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Please be advised that future verbal and written communications from the bank may be in English only. These communications may include, but are not limited to, account agreements, statements and disclosures, changes in terms or fees; or any servicing of your account.

Por favor, tenga en cuenta que es posible que las comunicaciones futuras del banco, ya sean verbales o escritas, sean únicamente en inglés. Estas comunicaciones podrían incluir, entre otras, contratos de cuentas, estados de cuenta y divulgaciones, así como cambios en términos o cargos o cualquier tipo de servicio para su cuenta.

Informamos que as futuras comunicações do banco, verbais e escritas, podem estar disponíveis apenas em inglês. Essas comunicações podem incluir, entre outras, acordos de conta, extratos de conta e divulgações, alterações aos termos ou tarifas, ou qualquer tipo de serviço pertinente à sua conta.

仅此通知,本行即日起发出的口头及书面通信可能将只提供英文版本。这些通信可能包括但不限于账户协议,账单和通知,条款或费用变更;或任何为您账户提供的服务。

Please be advised that future verbal and written communications from the bank may be in English only. These communications may include, but are not limited to, account agreements, statements and disclosures, changes in terms or fees; or any servicing of your account.

Por favor, tenga en cuenta que es posible que las comunicaciones futuras del banco, ya sean verbales o escritas, sean únicamente en inglés. Estas comunicaciones podrían incluir, entre otras, contratos de cuentas, estados de cuenta y divulgaciones, así como cambios en términos o cargos o cualquier tipo de servicio para su cuenta.

Informamos que as futuras comunicações do banco, verbais e escritas, podem estar disponíveis apenas em inglês. Essas comunicações podem incluir, entre outras, acordos de conta, extratos de conta e divulgações, alterações aos termos ou tarifas, ou qualquer tipo de serviço pertinente à sua conta.

仅此通知,本行即日起发出的口头及书面通信可能将只提供英文版本。这些通信可能包括但不限于账户协议,账单和通知,条款或费用变更;或任何为您账户提供的服务。

The-outlook-for-North-America

The outlook for North America

Charlie Reinhard

By Charlie Reinhard

Head - NAM Investment Strategy

April 11, 2018Posted InInvestments and Investment Strategy

After a volatile month and quarter, many investors are looking forward to what should be a strong Q1 2018 earnings season which kicks off in earnest with big bank reporting on 13 April. The Citi Private Bank Global Investment Committee (GIC) expects Q1 2018 S&P 500 EPS growth of 20% vs. Q1 2017.

 

US and global leading economic indicators, as well as our other signposts point to further growth ahead alongside favorable levels of inflation throughout most of the world.

 

In the context of current valuation readings for core stocks and bonds, two economic risks remain for investors looking ahead into 2018: First, the capacity for US growth has diminished after a long recovery which has brought the unemployment rate to its lowest level since 2000. Monetary policy is the second risk. Reduced bond purchases in Europe and a reduction in Federal Reserve bond holdings will absorb savings at a time when US fiscal policy results in additional government bond supply.

 

Interest rates may need to gradually rise to create the private sector demand to absorb additional government bond supply stemming from the recent tax cuts and in light of less aggressive bidding by central banks. As for monetary policy, we still see a proportionately muted monetary tightening cycle compared to the massive easing steps since 2008. We also note that credit generated for earlier emergency actions in 2011-2013 was successfully unwound without derailing the recovery.

 

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey showed a 14% jump in pessimism over the final two weeks in March, to levels last seen on 7 September 2017. The latest reading shows 31.9%% of investors are bulls (historical average is 38.5% bullish), 35.3% bears (vs historical average of 30.5%), and the rest (32.7%) are neutral. To the degree that the recovery continues and concerns about trade diminish over time, investor sentiment has room for improvement from here.