By David Bailin
Chief Investment Officer
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We see the coming COVID season as more of a healthcare challenge than an economic one. Our view is that further fiscal stimulus is both necessary and likely.
Recent events are a further warning that the immediate impact of the pandemic remains substantial and its path dependent, in part, on the manner in which countries manage the crisis and adapt to it. Adapting to Covid has been both highly creative and highly destructive. The “net” of this destruction and adaptation tells us where how overall economy and employment picture is doing. In typical prior expansions, monthly gains in net employment just one third of September’s would be considered quite strong. New US business start-ups have risen to 3.2 million this year vs 2.7 million through the same period during 2019.
A much lighter than typical flu season will probably save tens of thousands of lives. It also suggests a pick-up in the US economy this year of nearly $170B.
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