By David Bailin
Chief Investment Officer
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Markets have been strong in the face of extraordinary uncertainty. But we see evidence – and expect events – that suggest more volatility could be in the offing.
• When markets have been strong in the face of uncertainty, the difference in implied versus actual volatility presages periods when more volatility may be realized.
• This is a New Economic Cycle and it is just six months old. The larger economic recovery is still almost entirely ahead of us. In a post-Covid world, many unloved stocks should see a substantial recovery as industries most impacted by the disruption of social distancing are relieved of their constraints. This reflects the medical and associated economic realities of COVID.
• See also our Special Report: Brexit and Then What? (In detail below) As the pandemic and Brexit terms are resolved, the attractiveness of British shares is likely to become clearer. We believe that accumulating UK equities and Sterling into weakness and in tranches over the rest of 2020 may be beneficial
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