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Please be advised that future verbal and written communications from the bank may be in English only. These communications may include, but are not limited to, account agreements, statements and disclosures, changes in terms or fees; or any servicing of your account.

Por favor, tenga en cuenta que es posible que las comunicaciones futuras del banco, ya sean verbales o escritas, sean únicamente en inglés. Estas comunicaciones podrían incluir, entre otras, contratos de cuentas, estados de cuenta y divulgaciones, así como cambios en términos o cargos o cualquier tipo de servicio para su cuenta.

Informamos que as futuras comunicações do banco, verbais e escritas, podem estar disponíveis apenas em inglês. Essas comunicações podem incluir, entre outras, acordos de conta, extratos de conta e divulgações, alterações aos termos ou tarifas, ou qualquer tipo de serviço pertinente à sua conta.

仅此通知,本行即日起发出的口头及书面通信可能将只提供英文版本。这些通信可能包括但不限于账户协议,账单和通知,条款或费用变更;或任何为您账户提供的服务。

Please be advised that future verbal and written communications from the bank may be in English only. These communications may include, but are not limited to, account agreements, statements and disclosures, changes in terms or fees; or any servicing of your account.

Por favor, tenga en cuenta que es posible que las comunicaciones futuras del banco, ya sean verbales o escritas, sean únicamente en inglés. Estas comunicaciones podrían incluir, entre otras, contratos de cuentas, estados de cuenta y divulgaciones, así como cambios en términos o cargos o cualquier tipo de servicio para su cuenta.

Informamos que as futuras comunicações do banco, verbais e escritas, podem estar disponíveis apenas em inglês. Essas comunicações podem incluir, entre outras, acordos de conta, extratos de conta e divulgações, alterações aos termos ou tarifas, ou qualquer tipo de serviço pertinente à sua conta.

仅此通知,本行即日起发出的口头及书面通信可能将只提供英文版本。这些通信可能包括但不限于账户协议,账单和通知,条款或费用变更;或任何为您账户提供的服务。

How-US-midterms-may-impact-investments

How US midterms may impact investments

Charlie Reinhard

By Charlie Reinhard

Head - NAM Investment Strategy

April 23, 2018Posted InInvestments and Investment Strategy

The 2018 midterm season is upon us and the latest polling suggests the balance of power in Washington DC could shift in November, creating potential uncertainty. Historically, US stocks and bonds have seen defensive leadership in the May-October period leading up to US midterm elections followed by more cyclical leadership in November-April period following midterm elections. International stocks have outperformed US stocks prior to and after the midterm elections, with both typically rallying afterwards, suggesting one more reason to go global now.

Equities

Since 1990, in six of the seven midterms defensive equity market sectors outperformed cyclical ones by 7%, on average, during the May-October months preceding the elections. Conversely, in six of seven periods following the midterms, cyclicals outperformed defensives by 7%, on average, during November-April. By way of comparison, US stocks overall lagged international equities all seven times heading into midterm elections since 1990 with both typically posting strong performance afterwards.

Fixed income

Since 1996, Treasuries outperformed High Yield bonds all five times while Investment Grade corporates outperformed High Yield in four of five occasions in the May-October period leading up to the US midterm elections. Conversely, High Yield bonds outperformed Investment Grade corporates and Treasuries in four of five November-April episodes following these midterms.

2018 midterm outlook

Over the past 21 midterm elections, the President’s party has lost an average of 30 seats in the House and four seats in the Senate. According to the Cook Political Report, it currently looks “fairly likely” Republicans will lose their House majority but there is enormous uncertainty about the Senate where Republicans currently have a 51-49 majority with ten Democratic Senate seats up in states President Trump carried in 2016 versus one Republican seat up in a state Secretary Clinton carried. Of course, things could certainly change between now and November. We would give higher odds to a meaningful infrastructure spending program should Democrats take over control of the House.