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Language Notification

Please be advised that future verbal and written communications from the bank may be in English only. These communications may include, but are not limited to, account agreements, statements and disclosures, changes in terms or fees; or any servicing of your account.

Por favor, tenga en cuenta que es posible que las comunicaciones futuras del banco, ya sean verbales o escritas, sean únicamente en inglés. Estas comunicaciones podrían incluir, entre otras, contratos de cuentas, estados de cuenta y divulgaciones, así como cambios en términos o cargos o cualquier tipo de servicio para su cuenta.

Informamos que as futuras comunicações do banco, verbais e escritas, podem estar disponíveis apenas em inglês. Essas comunicações podem incluir, entre outras, acordos de conta, extratos de conta e divulgações, alterações aos termos ou tarifas, ou qualquer tipo de serviço pertinente à sua conta.

仅此通知,本行即日起发出的口头及书面通信可能将只提供英文版本。这些通信可能包括但不限于账户协议,账单和通知,条款或费用变更;或任何为您账户提供的服务。

Please be advised that future verbal and written communications from the bank may be in English only. These communications may include, but are not limited to, account agreements, statements and disclosures, changes in terms or fees; or any servicing of your account.

Por favor, tenga en cuenta que es posible que las comunicaciones futuras del banco, ya sean verbales o escritas, sean únicamente en inglés. Estas comunicaciones podrían incluir, entre otras, contratos de cuentas, estados de cuenta y divulgaciones, así como cambios en términos o cargos o cualquier tipo de servicio para su cuenta.

Informamos que as futuras comunicações do banco, verbais e escritas, podem estar disponíveis apenas em inglês. Essas comunicações podem incluir, entre outras, acordos de conta, extratos de conta e divulgações, alterações aos termos ou tarifas, ou qualquer tipo de serviço pertinente à sua conta.

仅此通知,本行即日起发出的口头及书面通信可能将只提供英文版本。这些通信可能包括但不限于账户协议,账单和通知,条款或费用变更;或任何为您账户提供的服务。

Man in rough waters in a kayak

Perspectives

From engineered shutdown to engineered boom

David Bailin

By David Bailin

Chief Investment Officer

March 14, 2021Posted InInvestment Strategy

The 11-year economic expansion COVID dismembered did not die of “natural causes.” The COVID pandemic was an exogenous shock. An “outside disruption” caused the world to substantially shutdown most economic activity for a time as a means of saving human lives. After the initial closures, socially close activity was minimized globally. The resultant recession was hugely different in shape and impact than ones derived from traditional endogenous business cycle contractions fueled by demand “overheating” or excessive investment. 

The pandemic drove very “abnormal” economic behaviors, including an instant transition to “working from home”, digital versus in-person communications, closures of borders and substitutions in spending patterns to “what one could do” during a forced “stay-at-home” health crisis. Protecting society from COVID caused unprecedented swings in economic output across the world within 2020. In the US, for example, real GDP was -31% and +33% annualized in 2Q and 3Q. It also sharply re-distributed spending between sectors, causing simultaneous booms and busts. 

In response, record US stimulus packages and similar, smaller fiscal actions in other parts of the world, were crafted to provide a bridge across an economic chasm. The miraculous, vaccine-driven reopening of services industries will follow. However, vastly different interest rate and fiscal policies across the globe will cause further “abnormalities” in the overall pace of growth going forward and the distribution of activity in particular regions and industries.

Download: CIO Strategy Bulletin