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Language Notification

Please be advised that future verbal and written communications from the bank may be in English only. These communications may include, but are not limited to, account agreements, statements and disclosures, changes in terms or fees; or any servicing of your account.

Por favor, tenga en cuenta que es posible que las comunicaciones futuras del banco, ya sean verbales o escritas, sean únicamente en inglés. Estas comunicaciones podrían incluir, entre otras, contratos de cuentas, estados de cuenta y divulgaciones, así como cambios en términos o cargos o cualquier tipo de servicio para su cuenta.

Informamos que as futuras comunicações do banco, verbais e escritas, podem estar disponíveis apenas em inglês. Essas comunicações podem incluir, entre outras, acordos de conta, extratos de conta e divulgações, alterações aos termos ou tarifas, ou qualquer tipo de serviço pertinente à sua conta.

仅此通知,本行即日起发出的口头及书面通信可能将只提供英文版本。这些通信可能包括但不限于账户协议,账单和通知,条款或费用变更;或任何为您账户提供的服务。

Please be advised that future verbal and written communications from the bank may be in English only. These communications may include, but are not limited to, account agreements, statements and disclosures, changes in terms or fees; or any servicing of your account.

Por favor, tenga en cuenta que es posible que las comunicaciones futuras del banco, ya sean verbales o escritas, sean únicamente en inglés. Estas comunicaciones podrían incluir, entre otras, contratos de cuentas, estados de cuenta y divulgaciones, así como cambios en términos o cargos o cualquier tipo de servicio para su cuenta.

Informamos que as futuras comunicações do banco, verbais e escritas, podem estar disponíveis apenas em inglês. Essas comunicações podem incluir, entre outras, acordos de conta, extratos de conta e divulgações, alterações aos termos ou tarifas, ou qualquer tipo de serviço pertinente à sua conta.

仅此通知,本行即日起发出的口头及书面通信可能将只提供英文版本。这些通信可能包括但不限于账户协议,账单和通知,条款或费用变更;或任何为您账户提供的服务。

cio-strategy-bulletin-more-answers-to-your-great-questions

Perspectives

CIO Strategy Bulletin: More answers to your great questions

David Bailin

By David Bailin

Chief Investment Officer

March 25, 2020Posted InEquities, Fixed Income and Investment Strategy

  1. When the Virus Crisis shows up in the data, what will it look like?

On Thursday, March 26th at 8:30 AM the Department of Labor will publish data showing the first full week’s impact of the virus on unemployment. It will not be pretty. New York, New Jersey, California and Illinois (25% of 2018 US GDP or roughly 10% more than all of German GDP) are closed for business. Nearly 60% of the US workforce are paid hourly, with a concentration in the retail and hospitality sectors.

Ironically, the “best case” scenario for workers, firms and the economy is that all employees be furloughed immediately, such that they can receive unemployment benefits. This will prevent a total collapse in income and preserve crucial cash for business solvency. That said, state unemployment benefits vary greatly in value (with maximum weekly benefits varying from 4% of quarterly wages capped at $240 to ½ normal weekly pay capped at $795) and length (12 to 30 weeks) per savingtoinvest.com.

Citi Private Bank expects that unemployment claims for this first week will be the largest ever on record, with more than two million filing. Over the next four weeks, assuming that 50% of the US is sheltered in place, we expect that there will be 10 million unemployed. And at its peak, we could imagine unemployment reaching 15-18% of the total US workforce, representing a staggering 25 million people. As discussed in our related report “What It Will Take,” we believe massive policy interventions from a quick and flexible government can mean that a large part of this employment decline could be recovered, most ideally in the year ahead.

Looking at future data, we expect that reports of small business confidence will likely fall to the worst level ever, as will expansion plans and investment intentions. Crucial areas to watch are investment, construction and trade. In many areas, construction has been allowed to continue, but projects are also being mothballed and cancelled.

Read our answers to eight more key questions.

 

If you are a Citi Private Bank client you can check the value of your portfolio by reviewing your monthly statements or, if you use Citi Private Bank InView, by navigating to the Account Overview page via Portfolio → Overview. If you have any queries please contact your usual Citi Private Bank representative.