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Please be advised that future verbal and written communications from the bank may be in English only. These communications may include, but are not limited to, account agreements, statements and disclosures, changes in terms or fees; or any servicing of your account.

Por favor, tenga en cuenta que es posible que las comunicaciones futuras del banco, ya sean verbales o escritas, sean únicamente en inglés. Estas comunicaciones podrían incluir, entre otras, contratos de cuentas, estados de cuenta y divulgaciones, así como cambios en términos o cargos o cualquier tipo de servicio para su cuenta.

Informamos que as futuras comunicações do banco, verbais e escritas, podem estar disponíveis apenas em inglês. Essas comunicações podem incluir, entre outras, acordos de conta, extratos de conta e divulgações, alterações aos termos ou tarifas, ou qualquer tipo de serviço pertinente à sua conta.

仅此通知,本行即日起发出的口头及书面通信可能将只提供英文版本。这些通信可能包括但不限于账户协议,账单和通知,条款或费用变更;或任何为您账户提供的服务。

Please be advised that future verbal and written communications from the bank may be in English only. These communications may include, but are not limited to, account agreements, statements and disclosures, changes in terms or fees; or any servicing of your account.

Por favor, tenga en cuenta que es posible que las comunicaciones futuras del banco, ya sean verbales o escritas, sean únicamente en inglés. Estas comunicaciones podrían incluir, entre otras, contratos de cuentas, estados de cuenta y divulgaciones, así como cambios en términos o cargos o cualquier tipo de servicio para su cuenta.

Informamos que as futuras comunicações do banco, verbais e escritas, podem estar disponíveis apenas em inglês. Essas comunicações podem incluir, entre outras, acordos de conta, extratos de conta e divulgações, alterações aos termos ou tarifas, ou qualquer tipo de serviço pertinente à sua conta.

仅此通知,本行即日起发出的口头及书面通信可能将只提供英文版本。这些通信可能包括但不限于账户协议,账单和通知,条款或费用变更;或任何为您账户提供的服务。

A-look-ahead-news-moving-markets

Perspectives

CIO Strategy: A look ahead – news moving markets

David Bailin

By David Bailin

Chief Investment Officer

April 26, 2020Posted InEquities, Investment Strategy and Fixed Income

On an April 20th podcast, Marc Lipsitch, Professor of Epidemiology at Harvard, noted that in his field there are (a) facts, (b) informed extrapolations from comparable events (pandemics) and (c) opinions/speculation. We think the same is true for markets and economic forecasting. 

So, let’s begin with our earnings forecasts and actual earnings for Q1 2020. As you can see below, we expect a major reduction in earnings in 2020, followed by a partial recovery in 2021. On the right you can see the initial report of Q1 earnings. With about 22% of companies reporting, we see flat YoY revenues and earnings down 22%, more than 9% below estimates. As we wrote in The COVID Tug-of War, market leadership has depended on a handful of mostly technology shares. The most sensitive of those leaders to current conditions are Google and Facebook who are dependent on digital advertising revenues for growth and profitability. After Netflix reported blowout number last week following a strong rally, its share price slid modestly. This means that expectations for it and other leaders are quite high.

Read CIO Strategy.

 

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