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Language Notification

Please be advised that future verbal and written communications from the bank may be in English only. These communications may include, but are not limited to, account agreements, statements and disclosures, changes in terms or fees; or any servicing of your account.

Por favor, tenga en cuenta que es posible que las comunicaciones futuras del banco, ya sean verbales o escritas, sean únicamente en inglés. Estas comunicaciones podrían incluir, entre otras, contratos de cuentas, estados de cuenta y divulgaciones, así como cambios en términos o cargos o cualquier tipo de servicio para su cuenta.

Informamos que as futuras comunicações do banco, verbais e escritas, podem estar disponíveis apenas em inglês. Essas comunicações podem incluir, entre outras, acordos de conta, extratos de conta e divulgações, alterações aos termos ou tarifas, ou qualquer tipo de serviço pertinente à sua conta.

仅此通知,本行即日起发出的口头及书面通信可能将只提供英文版本。这些通信可能包括但不限于账户协议,账单和通知,条款或费用变更;或任何为您账户提供的服务。

Please be advised that future verbal and written communications from the bank may be in English only. These communications may include, but are not limited to, account agreements, statements and disclosures, changes in terms or fees; or any servicing of your account.

Por favor, tenga en cuenta que es posible que las comunicaciones futuras del banco, ya sean verbales o escritas, sean únicamente en inglés. Estas comunicaciones podrían incluir, entre otras, contratos de cuentas, estados de cuenta y divulgaciones, así como cambios en términos o cargos o cualquier tipo de servicio para su cuenta.

Informamos que as futuras comunicações do banco, verbais e escritas, podem estar disponíveis apenas em inglês. Essas comunicações podem incluir, entre outras, acordos de conta, extratos de conta e divulgações, alterações aos termos ou tarifas, ou qualquer tipo de serviço pertinente à sua conta.

仅此通知,本行即日起发出的口头及书面通信可能将只提供英文版本。这些通信可能包括但不限于账户协议,账单和通知,条款或费用变更;或任何为您账户提供的服务。

Shanghai financial district

Perspectives

China: Beyond 2015 and hello 2007

Ken Peng

By Ken Peng

Head - Asia Investment Strategy

January 15, 2021Posted InFixed Income, Investment Strategy and Equities

  • After 36% returns in 2020, Chinese equities reclaimed the 2015 high in early 2021, with the 2007 peak within sight. Investors are concerned about a bubble. 

 

  • We see several supportive factors, including stronger fundamentals, not just from cyclical earnings recovery, but also better long-term prospects. Valuations are no longer cheap, but they remain consistent with earnings. Foreign fund inflows are strong, supported by low US interest rates and a weak US dollar, as well as foreign institutional investors allocating to quality growth in China.

 

  • The main risk comes from domestic credit impulse likely turning downward. The 2016-17 rally ended three months after credit impulse peaked. This time, the credit peak may have been last November. This may leave overall index vulnerable, while sector rotation takes place. The bull market could return after credit conditions normalize, as evidenced in 2019-20.

 

  •  We remain committed to the cyclical recovery across the region, which is likely more visible in Southeast Asia this year. Still, given improved fundamentals, we remain committed to China’s positive longer-term prospects beyond near term volatility.
Read Asia Strategy